Indicators of optimism tinged with potentially troubling developments in the labor market are the focus of America’s Credit Unions newly released Economic Update video
Head of Emerging Issues/Deputy Chief Economist Curt Long points to signs that the economy is shifting into more labor market and growth concerns instead of inflation.
“It isn’t just the unemployment rate where we’re seeing signs of weakness in the labor market,” Long said. “Although layoffs remain low, hiring has slowed dramatically. That has resulted in far fewer workers changing jobs, and those looking for work are having a much harder time finding it. Two years ago, 30% of unemployed workers found a job by the following month, but that figure has gradually receded to 26%, which is below where we were in 2019 right before the pandemic.”
Credit union employment cycles tend to “wax and wane with the credit cycle,” with credit union loan growth rates echoing hiring rates.
