Economics team sits down with the Bigcast during GAC 2025
Taking their “Economists’ Update” from this year’s Governmental Affairs Conference (GAC) main stage to the airwaves, America’s Credit Unions Economics team members shared insights on the Bigcast, a podcast hosted by Glen Sarvady.
Chief Economist Mike Schenk, Senior Economist Dawit Kebede, Senior Economist Ligia Vado, and Deputy Chief Economist Curt Long discussed the information shared during their GAC presentation, as well as the existential threat arising from the tax fight.
The uncertainty around tariffs and the difficulty of forecasting the economy given the state of flux in terms of trade policy is an issue, but the team explained how current forecasting shows credit unions’ loan growth and deposit growth ticking up, with delinquencies declining in 2025.
“I could still stay with the baseline forecast as the most likely in the wide range of possible outcomes,” Long said. He did caution: “But I think the risks are shifting day-by-day to more of a downside… I think it’s fair to say that the economy is on shakier footing than it was six weeks ago.”
The team then discussed the tax fight and why this is a unique moment, different from years past, because there won’t necessarily be hearings to air concerns and provide data in a public forum
“In the past we’ve had the opportunity to weigh in at the committee level and that doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a possibility,” Schenk pointed out. “It’ll be happening in the absence of our ability to sort of jump in and provide context.”
Schenk underscored being present and telling the credit union difference to drive the discussion with lawmakers:
“The really important thing is that we get ahead of the bankers and inform them and avoid a situation where the bankers are telling our story.”
The team also dispelled myths that the banking industry uses to advocate for the removal of the tax status, explained what the team uncovered while looking through Equifax data, and reminded listeners of the monthly economic update videos as well as the Credit Union Impact Dashboard.